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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

SMU

8–4 FBS · ACC · 2025
Rating
+10.9
Rank
23
Résumé
34
Our picks
7–5
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
7.9expected wins · finished 8–4
Bowl (6+)95%
9+ wins36%
11+ wins4%

8–4 against 7.9 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 9.6.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 23rdAP NRFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
2–3
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
+0.1
8–4 vs 7.9
One-score games flipped
9–3
what-if record
Turnover margin
+1
expected +4.5

Luck: −1.6 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 35th · +6.2 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency+0.751st
Offense play value+1.737th
Defense efficiency+0.750th
Defense play value+2.528th
Drive finishing+1.117th
Field position−0.699th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security−0.099th
Third-down conversion+0.039th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added −1.5 pts/game to results — ran cold; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
−0.4
80th
Havoc rate
9.0%
109th
Rush rate over expected
−9.7%
129th · pass-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceSMUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
SMUoff +0.10 37thdef −0.08 21st

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
7–5against the closing line
Pick was the favorite3–3
Pick was the dog4–2
Home / away side4–1 / 3–4
Average gap to the close+3.4 pts
Our line beat the close7 of 12

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played+0.967th
Full season+0.967th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Sep 6BaylorSMU −5.8−2.5L 45–4838LOSS
Sat, Sep 13at Missouri StateSMU −14.9−29.5W 28–1077WIN
Sat, Sep 20at TCUSMU +6.9+6.5L 24–3541WIN
Sat, Oct 4SyracuseSMU −15.4−17.5W 31–1887WIN
Sat, Oct 11StanfordSMU −19.2−19.5W 34–1088LOSS
Sat, Oct 18at ClemsonSMU +1.1+3.5W 35–2457WIN
Sat, Oct 25at Wake ForestSMU −9.3−5.5L 12–1348LOSS
Sat, Nov 1MiamiSMU +5.2+8.5W 26–2054WIN
Sat, Nov 8at Boston CollegeSMU −12.5−10.5W 45–1366WIN
Sat, Nov 22LouisvilleSMU −6.2−4.0W 38–685WIN
Sat, Nov 29at CaliforniaSMU −19.8−13.5L 35–3851LOSS
Fri, Jan 2ArizonaSMU −2.3−2.5W 24–1994LOSS

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.