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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Florida State

4–7 FBS · ACC · 2025
Rating
+5.2
Rank
39
Résumé
77
Our picks
7–4
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
5.7expected wins · finished 4–7
Bowl (6+)55%
9+ wins3%
11+ wins0%

4–7 against 5.7 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 6.2.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 39thAP NRFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
0–4
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
−1.7
4–7 vs 5.7
One-score games flipped
8–3
what-if record
Turnover margin
−7
expected +1.0

Luck: −2.2 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 29th · +8.4 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency+3.612th
Offense play value+5.110th
Defense efficiency+0.156th
Defense play value−0.371st
Drive finishing+0.442nd
Field position−0.484th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security−0.0115th
Third-down conversion−0.0127th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added −0.6 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
+1.1
32nd
Havoc rate
9.7%
93rd
Rush rate over expected
+4.2%
30th · run-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceFSUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Florida Stateoff +0.12 27thdef +0.09 95th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
7–4against the closing line
Pick was the favorite2–1
Pick was the dog5–3
Home / away side5–0 / 2–4
Average gap to the close+7.2 pts
Our line beat the close6 of 11

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played+3.144th
Full season+3.144th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Aug 30AlabamaFSU +19.3+13.5W 31–1780LOSS
Sat, Sep 20Kent StateFSU −34.4−44.5W 66–1058LOSS
Fri, Sep 26at VirginiaFSU PK−7.0L 38–4651WIN
Sat, Oct 4MiamiFSU +9.4+3.5L 22–2814WIN
Sat, Oct 11PittsburghFSU −2.3−10.5L 31–3435WIN
Sat, Oct 18at StanfordFSU −10.3−17.5L 13–2055WIN
Sat, Nov 1Wake ForestFSU −4.3−12.5W 42–783LOSS
Sat, Nov 8at ClemsonFSU +7.8+1.5L 10–2450WIN
Sat, Nov 15Virginia TechFSU −8.9−14.5W 34–1458LOSS
Fri, Nov 21at NC StateFSU −0.9−7.0L 11–2156WIN
Sat, Nov 29at FloridaFSU +7.4−1.5L 21–4016WIN

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.