LockSZN
Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Duke

8–5 FBS · ACC · 2025
Rating
+5.0
Rank
43
Résumé
39
Our picks
8–4
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
5.9expected wins · finished 8–5
Bowl (6+)58%
9+ wins6%
11+ wins0%

8–5 against 5.9 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 5.6.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 43rdFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
4–2
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
+2.1
8–5 vs 5.9
One-score games flipped
6–7
what-if record
Turnover margin
+8
expected +9.5

Luck: +2.4 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 60th · +1.9 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency+2.028th
Offense play value+3.622nd
Defense efficiency−1.5100th
Defense play value−4.3127th
Drive finishing+1.312th
Field position+0.824th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security+0.040th
Third-down conversion+0.039th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added +0.2 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
+1.3
24th
Havoc rate
12.2%
28th
Rush rate over expected
−6.5%
116th · pass-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceDUKEgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Dukeoff +0.12 28thdef +0.16 122nd

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
8–4against the closing line
Pick was the favorite4–2
Pick was the dog4–2
Home / away side3–3 / 5–1
Average gap to the close+4.6 pts
Our line beat the close7 of 13

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played+1.859th
Full season+1.859th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Sep 6IllinoisDUKE +4.1+2.5L 19–4547WIN
Sat, Sep 13at TulaneDUKE +9.6+1.5L 27–3423WIN
Sat, Sep 20NC StateDUKE +6.7−3.0W 45–3359LOSS
Sat, Sep 27at SyracuseDUKE +3.1−4.0W 38–385LOSS
Sat, Oct 4at CaliforniaDUKE −4.0−3.5W 45–2157WIN
Sat, Oct 18Georgia TechDUKE +0.6−3.5L 18–2753WIN
Sat, Nov 1at ClemsonDUKE +6.8+4.0W 46–4548LOSS
Sat, Nov 8at UConnDUKE +4.1−7.5L 34–3752WIN
Sat, Nov 15VirginiaDUKE −4.3−5.5L 17–3425WIN
Sat, Nov 22at North CarolinaDUKE −3.5−7.0W 32–2538PUSH
Sat, Nov 29Wake ForestDUKE −3.0−2.5W 49–3237WIN
Sat, Dec 6at VirginiaDUKE +4.5+3.5W 27–2054LOSS
Wed, Dec 31Arizona StateDUKE +2.6−4.0W 42–3948WIN

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.