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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Fresno State

8–4 FBS · Pac-12 · 2025
Rating
−0.1
Rank
69
Résumé
58
Our picks
6–6
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
6.1expected wins · finished 8–4
Bowl (6+)65%
9+ wins7%
11+ wins0%

8–4 against 6.1 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 5.0.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 69thFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
2–0
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
+1.9
8–4 vs 6.1
One-score games flipped
6–6
what-if record
Turnover margin
+7
expected +3.5

Luck: +3.0 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 65th · −0.3 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency−1.8103rd
Offense play value−4.3121st
Defense efficiency+1.831st
Defense play value+3.519th
Drive finishing−1.1118th
Field position+1.79th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security−0.0122nd
Third-down conversion+0.039th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added −2.7 pts/game to results — ran cold; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
+0.6
46th
Havoc rate
11.9%
34th
Rush rate over expected
+3.8%
33rd · run-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceFRESgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Fresno Stateoff −0.09 116thdef −0.05 32nd

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
6–6against the closing line
Pick was the favorite2–2
Pick was the dog4–4
Home / away side2–2 / 4–4
Average gap to the close+1.1 pts
Our line beat the close6 of 12

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played−4.8114th
Full season−4.8114th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Aug 23at KansasFRES +14.7+14.0L 7–3111WIN
Sat, Aug 30Georgia SouthernFRES −0.5−2.5W 42–1458LOSS
Sat, Sep 6at Oregon StateFRES PK+1.5W 36–2735WIN
Sat, Sep 20at Hawai'iFRES −6.3−2.5W 23–2173LOSS
Sat, Oct 4NevadaFRES −12.5−12.5W 20–1763WIN
Fri, Oct 10at Colorado StateFRES −5.3−5.5L 21–4913WIN
Sat, Oct 25San Diego StateFRES +1.9+3.0L 0–2332LOSS
Sat, Nov 1at Boise StateFRES +20.6+17.5W 30–761LOSS
Sat, Nov 15WyomingFRES −2.6−3.0W 24–350LOSS
Sat, Nov 22Utah StateFRES −1.1−1.5L 17–2820WIN
Sat, Nov 29at San José StateFRES −3.0−3.0W 41–1459WIN
Sat, Dec 27Miami (OH)FRES −4.8−5.5W 18–369LOSS

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.