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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Nevada

2–9 FBS · Mountain West · 2025
Rating
−10.9
Rank
114
Résumé
117
Our picks
5–5
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
3.0expected wins · finished 2–9
Bowl (6+)4%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

2–9 against 3.0 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 3.9.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 114thFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
1–3
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
−1.0
2–9 vs 3.0
One-score games flipped
4–7
what-if record
Turnover margin
−13
expected −7.5

Luck: −1.9 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 124th · −12.1 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency−2.9119th
Offense play value−4.9123rd
Defense efficiency−1.496th
Defense play value−1.385th
Drive finishing−1.9131st
Field position+0.346th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security−0.1135th
Third-down conversion+0.039th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added −4.1 pts/game to results — ran cold; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
+1.5
21st
Havoc rate
9.4%
100th
Rush rate over expected
+6.3%
22nd · run-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceNEVgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Nevadaoff −0.15 126thdef −0.03 41st

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
5–5against the closing line
Pick was the favorite1–2
Pick was the dog4–3
Home / away side1–3 / 4–2
Average gap to the close+1.7 pts
Our line beat the close5 of 11

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played−0.877th
Full season−0.877th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Aug 30at Penn StateNEV +47.0+45.5L 11–4611LOSS
Sat, Sep 13Middle TennesseeNEV −6.5−9.5L 13–1465WIN
Sat, Sep 20at Western KentuckyNEV +7.5+8.5L 16–3135LOSS
Sat, Oct 4at Fresno StateNEV +12.5+12.5L 17–2038WIN
Sat, Oct 11San Diego StateNEV +5.4+6.5L 10–4425LOSS
Sat, Oct 18at New MexicoNEV +9.2+14.0L 22–2441WIN
Fri, Oct 24Boise StateNEV +22.2+21.0L 3–2439PUSH
Sat, Nov 8at Utah StateNEV +8.7+10.0L 14–513LOSS
Sat, Nov 15San José StateNEV +9.4+10.0W 55–1098WIN
Sat, Nov 22at WyomingNEV +7.1+6.0W 13–764LOSS
Sat, Nov 29UNLVNEV +9.9+7.5L 17–4225WIN

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.