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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

San Diego State

8–4 FBS · Pac-12 · 2025
Rating
+6.1
Rank
37
Résumé
48
Our picks
5–7
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
6.1expected wins · finished 8–4
Bowl (6+)64%
9+ wins6%
11+ wins0%

8–4 against 6.1 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 7.1.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 37thFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
1–2
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
+1.9
8–4 vs 6.1
One-score games flipped
9–3
what-if record
Turnover margin
+6
expected +7.0

Luck: +0.9 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 32nd · +6.5 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency−0.474th
Offense play value−1.997th
Defense efficiency+2.919th
Defense play value+5.67th
Drive finishing−0.280th
Field position+0.629th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security+0.04th
Third-down conversion+0.11st

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added +1.1 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
+1.8
18th
Havoc rate
11.2%
52nd
Rush rate over expected
+9.9%
11th · run-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateAir ForceSDSUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
San Diego Stateoff −0.03 96thdef −0.12 10th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
5–7against the closing line
Pick was the favorite2–1
Pick was the dog3–6
Home / away side5–3 / 0–4
Average gap to the close+2.8 pts
Our line beat the close5 of 12

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played−2.893rd
Full season−2.893rd

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Sep 6at Washington StateSDSU +14.7+2.5L 13–3635WIN
Sat, Sep 20CaliforniaSDSU +13.0+14.0W 34–051WIN
Sat, Sep 27at Northern IllinoisSDSU +4.0−1.5W 6–354LOSS
Fri, Oct 3Colorado StateSDSU −3.9−4.5W 45–2467LOSS
Sat, Oct 11at NevadaSDSU −5.4−6.5W 44–1075LOSS
Sat, Oct 25at Fresno StateSDSU −1.9−3.0W 23–069LOSS
Sat, Nov 1WyomingSDSU −8.9−10.0W 24–758LOSS
Sat, Nov 8at Hawai'iSDSU −8.2−6.5L 6–383LOSS
Sat, Nov 15Boise StateSDSU +6.3−1.5W 17–761LOSS
Sat, Nov 22San José StateSDSU −10.8−10.0W 25–365WIN
Fri, Nov 28at New MexicoSDSU −0.9−1.5L 17–2362WIN
Sat, Dec 27North TexasSDSU +7.3+7.5L 47–4952WIN

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.