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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

San José State

2–9 FBS · Mountain West · 2025
Rating
−12.1
Rank
121
Résumé
122
Our picks
9–2
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
5.8expected wins · finished 2–9
Bowl (6+)57%
9+ wins3%
11+ wins0%

2–9 against 5.8 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 5.5.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 121stFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
2–4
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
−3.8
2–9 vs 5.8
One-score games flipped
4–7
what-if record
Turnover margin
−24
expected −11.0

Luck: −3.5 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 100th · −7.1 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency+0.357th
Offense play value−0.168th
Defense efficiency−1.9110th
Defense play value−2.7108th
Drive finishing−1.4123rd
Field position−1.1117th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security−0.1131st
Third-down conversion−0.0102nd

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added −3.0 pts/game to results — ran cold; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
−1.2
109th
Havoc rate
7.6%
128th
Rush rate over expected
−12.0%
134th · pass-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceSJSUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
San José Stateoff +0.04 59thdef +0.10 97th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
9–2against the closing line
Pick was the favorite4–1
Pick was the dog5–1
Home / away side5–1 / 4–1
Average gap to the close+2.3 pts
Our line beat the close9 of 11

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played−1.784th
Full season−1.784th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Fri, Aug 29Central MichiganSJSU −17.1−11.5L 14–1645LOSS
Sat, Sep 6at TexasSJSU +33.1+36.5L 7–388WIN
Sat, Sep 27at StanfordSJSU PK+3.0L 29–3053WIN
Fri, Oct 3New MexicoSJSU −6.0−1.5W 35–2864WIN
Sat, Oct 11at WyomingSJSU −1.0−1.5L 28–3565WIN
Fri, Oct 17at Utah StateSJSU PK+3.0L 25–3045LOSS
Sat, Nov 1Hawai'iSJSU −5.0−2.5W 45–3853WIN
Sat, Nov 8Air ForceSJSU −4.8−6.0L 16–2668WIN
Sat, Nov 15at NevadaSJSU −9.4−10.0L 10–552WIN
Sat, Nov 22at San Diego StateSJSU +10.8+10.0L 3–2536WIN
Sat, Nov 29Fresno StateSJSU +3.0+3.0L 14–4142WIN

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.