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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Boise State

8–5 FBS · Pac-12 · 2025
Rating
+4.8
Rank
44
Résumé
41
Our picks
4–8
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
8.8expected wins · finished 8–5
Bowl (6+)99%
9+ wins59%
11+ wins10%

8–5 against 8.8 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 6.7.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 44thAP NRFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
1–0
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
−0.8
8–5 vs 8.8
One-score games flipped
7–6
what-if record
Turnover margin
−2
expected −3.5

Luck: +1.3 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 42nd · +5.1 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency−1.191st
Offense play value−0.577th
Defense efficiency+3.712th
Defense play value+2.431st
Drive finishing+0.065th
Field position+0.727th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security−0.0115th
Third-down conversion−0.1133rd

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added −0.2 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
−0.8
98th
Havoc rate
12.2%
23rd
Rush rate over expected
−0.1%
59th · pass-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceBOISgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Boise Stateoff +0.05 55thdef +0.01 51st

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
4–8against the closing line
Pick was the favorite4–4
Pick was the dog0–4
Home / away side4–3 / 0–5
Average gap to the close+3.4 pts
Our line beat the close3 of 13

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played+1.859th
Full season+1.859th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Thu, Aug 28at South FloridaBOIS −10.2−8.5L 7–3432LOSS
Sat, Sep 20at Air ForceBOIS −8.2−10.5W 49–3760LOSS
Sat, Sep 27App StateBOIS −17.5−16.5W 47–1481WIN
Sat, Oct 4at Notre DameBOIS +27.0+21.5L 7–2829LOSS
Sat, Oct 11New MexicoBOIS −17.7−14.5W 41–2585WIN
Sat, Oct 18UNLVBOIS −8.0−12.5W 56–3167LOSS
Fri, Oct 24at NevadaBOIS −22.2−21.0W 24–361PUSH
Sat, Nov 1Fresno StateBOIS −20.6−17.5L 7–3040LOSS
Sat, Nov 15at San Diego StateBOIS −6.3+1.5L 7–1740LOSS
Sat, Nov 22Colorado StateBOIS −19.9−17.5W 49–2184WIN
Fri, Nov 28at Utah StateBOIS −8.3−1.5W 25–2456LOSS
Fri, Dec 5UNLVBOIS −3.7−6.0W 38–2144LOSS
Sat, Dec 13at WashingtonBOIS +10.0+10.0L 10–3818WIN

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.