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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Kansas State

5–6 FBS · Big 12 · 2025
Rating
+5.6
Rank
38
Résumé
57
Our picks
5–6
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
6.9expected wins · finished 5–6
Bowl (6+)83%
9+ wins13%
11+ wins0%

5–6 against 6.9 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 6.9.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 38thAP NRFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
1–5
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
−1.9
5–6 vs 6.9
One-score games flipped
9–2
what-if record
Turnover margin
+12
expected +6.0

Luck: −1.9 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 55th · +2.5 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency−1.192nd
Offense play value+0.852nd
Defense efficiency+1.141st
Defense play value+0.554th
Drive finishing+0.734th
Field position+0.532nd
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security+0.040th
Third-down conversion0.060th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added +0.9 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
+0.1
63rd
Havoc rate
11.1%
59th
Rush rate over expected
+2.2%
42nd · run-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceKSUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Kansas Stateoff +0.04 63rddef −0.01 46th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
5–6against the closing line
Pick was the favorite1–5
Pick was the dog4–1
Home / away side2–4 / 3–2
Average gap to the close+5.2 pts
Our line beat the close5 of 11

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played+3.638th
Full season+3.638th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Aug 23Iowa StateKSU −8.4−3.5L 21–2454LOSS
Sat, Sep 6ArmyKSU −26.3−16.5L 21–2438LOSS
Fri, Sep 12at ArizonaKSU −7.5−1.5L 17–2323LOSS
Sat, Sep 27UCFKSU −8.9−6.0W 34–2080WIN
Sat, Oct 4at BaylorKSU +1.5+4.5L 34–3552WIN
Sat, Oct 11TCUKSU PK+3.0W 41–2874WIN
Sat, Oct 25at KansasKSU −0.7+3.5W 42–1775WIN
Sat, Nov 1Texas TechKSU PK+7.5L 20–4327LOSS
Sat, Nov 15at Oklahoma StateKSU −27.0−19.5W 14–659LOSS
Sat, Nov 22at UtahKSU +10.5+17.5L 47–5153WIN
Sat, Nov 29ColoradoKSU −18.2−16.5W 24–1460LOSS

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.