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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Michigan State

3–8 FBS · Big Ten · 2025
Rating
−3.0
Rank
81
Résumé
86
Our picks
5–6
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
3.8expected wins · finished 3–8
Bowl (6+)9%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

3–8 against 3.8 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 3.6.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 81stFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
1–2
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
−0.8
3–8 vs 3.8
One-score games flipped
4–7
what-if record
Turnover margin
−3
expected −0.5

Luck: −0.6 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 83rd · −3.7 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency+0.360th
Offense play value0.066th
Defense efficiency−1.186th
Defense play value−2.6106th
Drive finishing+0.255th
Field position−0.589th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security+0.040th
Third-down conversion+0.06th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added −0.4 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
−0.7
91st
Havoc rate
8.7%
112th
Rush rate over expected
−3.3%
97th · pass-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Western MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceMSUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Michigan Stateoff −0.01 89thdef +0.11 108th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
5–6against the closing line
Pick was the favorite2–6
Pick was the dog3–0
Home / away side1–5 / 4–1
Average gap to the close+2.6 pts
Our line beat the close4 of 11

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played+5.324th
Full season+5.324th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Fri, Aug 29Western MichiganMSU −14.4−18.5W 23–689WIN
Sat, Sep 6Boston CollegeMSU −2.7−3.5W 42–4041WIN
Sat, Sep 20at USCMSU +23.4+18.5L 31–4538LOSS
Sat, Oct 4at NebraskaMSU +12.7+12.5L 27–3847LOSS
Sat, Oct 11UCLAMSU −6.8−7.0L 13–3813WIN
Sat, Oct 18at IndianaMSU +27.1+26.5L 13–3826LOSS
Sat, Oct 25MichiganMSU +15.9+13.5L 20–3138LOSS
Sat, Nov 1at MinnesotaMSU +6.8+4.5L 20–2369LOSS
Sat, Nov 15Penn StateMSU +18.3+7.0L 10–2834WIN
Sat, Nov 22at IowaMSU +18.2+17.5L 17–2060LOSS
Sat, Nov 29MarylandMSU −5.0−4.0W 38–2843WIN

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.