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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Indiana

15–0 FBS · Big Ten · 2025
Rating
+30.0
Rank
1
Résumé
1
Our picks
7–8
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
11.6expected wins · finished 15–0
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins98%
11+ wins78%

15–0 against 11.6 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 12.6.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 1stAP 1stFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
4–0
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
+3.4
15–0 vs 11.6
One-score games flipped
11–4
what-if record
Turnover margin
+29
expected +13.0

Luck: +2.4 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 2nd · +25.2 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency+5.82nd
Offense play value+6.25th
Defense efficiency+5.25th
Defense play value+3.816th
Drive finishing+2.41st
Field position+1.88th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security+0.011th
Third-down conversion−0.1133rd

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added +3.3 pts/game to results — ran hot; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
+1.8
19th
Havoc rate
16.0%
1st
Rush rate over expected
+1.8%
43rd · run-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceIUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Indianaoff +0.16 15thdef −0.17 4th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
7–8against the closing line
Pick was the favorite3–4
Pick was the dog4–4
Home / away side4–5 / 3–3
Average gap to the close+2.5 pts
Our line beat the close7 of 15

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played+8.07th
Full season+8.07th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Aug 30Old DominionIU −19.8−23.5W 27–1445WIN
Sat, Sep 6Kennesaw StateIU −34.9−35.5W 56–986LOSS
Sat, Sep 20IllinoisIU −5.2−7.0W 63–1084LOSS
Sat, Sep 27at IowaIU −8.0−9.5W 20–1557WIN
Sat, Oct 11at OregonIU +4.5+7.0W 30–2062WIN
Sat, Oct 18Michigan StateIU −27.1−26.5W 38–1375LOSS
Sat, Oct 25UCLAIU −25.7−26.5W 56–698LOSS
Sat, Nov 1at MarylandIU −20.1−21.0W 55–1090LOSS
Sat, Nov 8at Penn StateIU −5.3−14.5W 27–2448WIN
Sat, Nov 15WisconsinIU −29.9−28.5W 31–760LOSS
Fri, Nov 28at PurdueIU −30.1−28.5W 56–387WIN
Sat, Dec 6at Ohio StateIU +4.3+3.5W 13–1065LOSS
Thu, Jan 1AlabamaIU −10.6−7.5W 38–373WIN
Fri, Jan 9OregonIU −6.2−3.0W 56–2296WIN
Mon, Jan 19MiamiIU −13.3−7.5W 27–2130LOSS

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.