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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

USC

9–4 FBS · Big Ten · 2025
Rating
+13.9
Rank
14
Résumé
24
Our picks
4–9
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
9.2expected wins · finished 9–4
Bowl (6+)99%
9+ wins70%
11+ wins18%

9–4 against 9.2 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 9.5.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 14thAP 20thFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
2–2
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
−0.2
9–4 vs 9.2
One-score games flipped
9–4
what-if record
Turnover margin
+1
expected +3.0

Luck: −0.5 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 25th · +9.6 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency+3.415th
Offense play value+6.63rd
Defense efficiency−1.187th
Defense play value+0.359th
Drive finishing+1.310th
Field position−0.8108th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security−0.080th
Third-down conversion−0.1131st

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added +0.8 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
−0.5
84th
Havoc rate
9.9%
88th
Rush rate over expected
−5.0%
105th · pass-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceUSCgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
USCoff +0.23 5thdef +0.02 55th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
4–9against the closing line
Pick was the favorite3–7
Pick was the dog1–2
Home / away side3–3 / 1–6
Average gap to the close+3.8 pts
Our line beat the close4 of 13

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played+4.234th
Full season+4.234th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Aug 30Missouri StateUSC −23.1−34.5W 73–1398LOSS
Sat, Sep 6Georgia SouthernUSC −28.6−28.5W 59–2084WIN
Sat, Sep 13at PurdueUSC −26.3−20.5W 33–1793LOSS
Sat, Sep 20Michigan StateUSC −23.4−18.5W 45–3162LOSS
Sat, Sep 27at IllinoisUSC −9.2−6.5L 32–3462LOSS
Sat, Oct 11MichiganUSC −4.0−3.0W 31–1372WIN
Sat, Oct 18at Notre DameUSC +15.1+10.5L 24–3422LOSS
Sat, Nov 1at NebraskaUSC −8.7−4.5W 21–1763LOSS
Fri, Nov 7NorthwesternUSC −18.5−14.5W 38–1765WIN
Sat, Nov 15IowaUSC −6.1−6.5W 26–2162WIN
Sat, Nov 22at OregonUSC +7.3+10.5L 27–4233LOSS
Sat, Nov 29UCLAUSC −25.3−21.5W 29–1058LOSS
Tue, Dec 30at TCUUSC −8.2−4.5L 27–3036LOSS

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.