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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Texas A&M

10–2 FBS · SEC · 2025
Rating
+14.2
Rank
13
Résumé
6
Our picks
4–8
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
8.0expected wins · finished 10–2
Bowl (6+)95%
9+ wins37%
11+ wins3%

10–2 against 8.0 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 9.7.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 13thAP 8thFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
4–1
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
+2.0
10–2 vs 8.0
One-score games flipped
7–5
what-if record
Turnover margin
−7
expected −3.0

Luck: +0.3 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 3rd · +21.0 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency+2.918th
Offense play value+4.512th
Defense efficiency+5.54th
Defense play value+4.910th
Drive finishing+1.022nd
Field position+2.34th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security+0.011th
Third-down conversion+0.039th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added +1.4 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
+0.2
59th
Havoc rate
15.2%
2nd
Rush rate over expected
−0.5%
63rd · pass-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceTA&Mgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Texas A&Moff +0.14 22nddef −0.10 15th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
4–8against the closing line
Pick was the favorite1–5
Pick was the dog3–3
Home / away side2–6 / 2–2
Average gap to the close+2.7 pts
Our line beat the close4 of 12

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played+6.316th
Full season+6.316th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Aug 30UTSATA&M −17.0−21.5W 42–2465WIN
Sat, Sep 6Utah StateTA&M −30.8−34.5W 44–2281WIN
Sat, Sep 13at Notre DameTA&M +17.0+6.5W 41–4061LOSS
Sat, Sep 27AuburnTA&M −8.7−6.5W 16–1060LOSS
Sat, Oct 4Mississippi StateTA&M −14.2−17.5W 31–972LOSS
Sat, Oct 11FloridaTA&M −7.2−7.0W 34–1776WIN
Sat, Oct 18at ArkansasTA&M −6.1−7.5W 45–4252WIN
Sat, Oct 25at LSUTA&M −1.4−1.5W 49–2569LOSS
Sat, Nov 8at MissouriTA&M −6.3−7.0W 38–1785LOSS
Sat, Nov 15South CarolinaTA&M −17.7−16.5W 31–3080LOSS
Fri, Nov 28at TexasTA&M −4.6−2.5L 17–2744LOSS
Sat, Dec 20MiamiTA&M −5.7−3.0L 3–1052LOSS

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.