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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Virginia

10–3 FBS · ACC · 2025
Rating
+8.8
Rank
26
Résumé
22
Our picks
6–7
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
7.5expected wins · finished 10–3
Bowl (6+)89%
9+ wins27%
11+ wins3%

10–3 against 7.5 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 5.9.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 26thAP 16thFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
5–3
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
+2.5
10–3 vs 7.5
One-score games flipped
8–5
what-if record
Turnover margin
+8
expected +8.5

Luck: +4.1 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 43rd · +4.8 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency−0.678th
Offense play value−1.087th
Defense efficiency+2.917th
Defense play value+3.222nd
Drive finishing−0.383rd
Field position+0.631st
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security+0.040th
Third-down conversion−0.1135th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added +2.3 pts/game to results — ran hot; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
+0.7
44th
Havoc rate
10.8%
68th
Rush rate over expected
−2.7%
92nd · pass-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceUVAgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Virginiaoff +0.01 78thdef −0.06 26th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
6–7against the closing line
Pick was the favorite2–4
Pick was the dog4–3
Home / away side3–4 / 3–3
Average gap to the close+4.2 pts
Our line beat the close5 of 13

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played+0.670th
Full season+0.670th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Aug 30Coastal CarolinaUVA −6.6−12.5W 48–783LOSS
Sat, Sep 6at NC StateUVA +9.7+2.5L 31–3543WIN
Sat, Sep 20StanfordUVA −6.1−16.5W 48–2062LOSS
Fri, Sep 26Florida StateUVA PK+7.0W 46–3850WIN
Sat, Oct 4at LouisvilleUVA +10.9+6.5W 30–2738LOSS
Sat, Oct 18Washington StateUVA −13.5−16.5W 22–2046WIN
Sat, Oct 25at North CarolinaUVA −6.6−11.5W 17–1647WIN
Sat, Nov 1at CaliforniaUVA −6.7−6.5W 31–2150WIN
Sat, Nov 8Wake ForestUVA −10.5−7.0L 9–1648LOSS
Sat, Nov 15at DukeUVA +4.3+5.5W 34–1775WIN
Sat, Nov 29Virginia TechUVA −7.2−8.5W 27–765LOSS
Sat, Dec 6DukeUVA −4.5−3.5L 20–2746LOSS
Sat, Dec 27at MissouriUVA +7.9+4.0W 13–768LOSS

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.