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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Mississippi State

4–8 FBS · SEC · 2025
Rating
−1.3
Rank
75
Résumé
72
Our picks
4–8
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
4.4expected wins · finished 4–8
Bowl (6+)22%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

4–8 against 4.4 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 4.1.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 75thFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
2–3
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
−0.4
4–8 vs 4.4
One-score games flipped
5–7
what-if record
Turnover margin
+3
expected 0.0

Luck: −0.1 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 53rd · +3.2 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency+0.947th
Offense play value+2.529th
Defense efficiency−0.264th
Defense play value−0.574th
Drive finishing+0.733rd
Field position−0.274th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security+0.040th
Third-down conversion−0.0102nd

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added +1.2 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
+2.6
8th
Havoc rate
8.3%
120th
Rush rate over expected
+3.3%
34th · run-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceMSSTgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Mississippi Stateoff −0.03 100thdef +0.07 84th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
4–8against the closing line
Pick was the favorite3–5
Pick was the dog1–3
Home / away side0–2 / 4–6
Average gap to the close+3.2 pts
Our line beat the close4 of 12

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played+5.324th
Full season+5.324th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Aug 30at Southern MissMSST −21.5−11.5W 34–1774WIN
Sat, Sep 6Arizona StateMSST +6.8+5.5W 24–2042LOSS
Sat, Sep 20Northern IllinoisMSST −15.9−23.5W 38–1078LOSS
Sat, Sep 27TennesseeMSST +9.5+7.5L 34–4137LOSS
Sat, Oct 4at Texas A&MMSST +14.2+17.5L 9–3129LOSS
Sat, Oct 18at FloridaMSST +10.2+9.5L 21–2340LOSS
Sat, Oct 25TexasMSST +10.7+8.5L 38–4566LOSS
Sat, Nov 1at ArkansasMSST +6.6+5.5W 38–3540LOSS
Sat, Nov 8GeorgiaMSST +12.7+9.5L 21–4110WIN
Sat, Nov 15at MissouriMSST +7.3+7.5L 27–4924LOSS
Fri, Nov 28Ole MissMSST +13.8+7.5L 19–3846WIN
Fri, Jan 2Wake ForestMSST −2.2−3.0L 29–4344WIN

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.