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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

North Texas

11–2 FBS · American Athletic · 2025
Rating
+12.9
Rank
17
Résumé
19
Our picks
4–9
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
8.4expected wins · finished 11–2
Bowl (6+)97%
9+ wins49%
11+ wins9%

11–2 against 8.4 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 9.9.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 17thAP 24thFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
3–0
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
+2.6
11–2 vs 8.4
One-score games flipped
8–5
what-if record
Turnover margin
+12
expected +11.5

Luck: +1.1 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 12th · +13.3 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency+5.13rd
Offense play value+7.52nd
Defense efficiency−0.977th
Defense play value−2.399th
Drive finishing+1.68th
Field position+2.25th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security+0.021st
Third-down conversion+0.011th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added +0.3 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
−0.2
71st
Havoc rate
9.2%
104th
Rush rate over expected
−5.8%
113th · pass-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceUNTgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
North Texasoff +0.25 4thdef +0.07 86th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
4–9against the closing line
Pick was the favorite1–1
Pick was the dog3–8
Home / away side3–4 / 1–5
Average gap to the close+4.5 pts
Our line beat the close4 of 13

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played−1.986th
Full season−1.986th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Sep 6at Western MichiganUNT −2.9−12.5W 33–3068WIN
Sat, Sep 13Washington StateUNT +4.1−6.5W 59–1087LOSS
Sat, Sep 20at ArmyUNT −5.5−2.5W 45–3860WIN
Sat, Sep 27South AlabamaUNT −10.3−13.5W 36–2268LOSS
Fri, Oct 10South FloridaUNT −6.9−2.5L 36–6315LOSS
Sat, Oct 18UTSAUNT +4.0−4.0W 55–1759LOSS
Fri, Oct 24at CharlotteUNT −20.4−25.5W 54–2062LOSS
Sat, Nov 1NavyUNT −4.5−6.5W 31–1747LOSS
Sat, Nov 15at UABUNT −13.5−17.5W 53–2499LOSS
Sat, Nov 22at RiceUNT −16.4−18.5W 56–2471LOSS
Fri, Nov 28TempleUNT −17.4−20.5W 52–2582LOSS
Fri, Dec 5at TulaneUNT +1.0−1.5L 21–3419WIN
Sat, Dec 27at San Diego StateUNT −7.3−7.5W 49–4749WIN

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.