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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Coastal Carolina

5–7 FBS · Sun Belt · 2025
Rating
−11.0
Rank
115
Résumé
93
Our picks
4–8
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
3.4expected wins · finished 5–7
Bowl (6+)7%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

5–7 against 3.4 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 5.8.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 115thFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
1–1
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
+1.6
5–7 vs 3.4
One-score games flipped
5–7
what-if record
Turnover margin
0
expected +0.5

Luck: −0.8 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 117th · −10.0 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency−3.5124th
Offense play value−2.4102nd
Defense efficiency−2.1114th
Defense play value−1.586th
Drive finishing−0.596th
Field position+0.155th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security−0.1131st
Third-down conversion0.060th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added −3.4 pts/game to results — ran cold; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
−0.8
97th
Havoc rate
8.6%
113th
Rush rate over expected
+4.2%
31st · run-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceCCUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Coastal Carolinaoff −0.01 87thdef +0.06 81st

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
4–8against the closing line
Pick was the favorite2–3
Pick was the dog2–5
Home / away side3–4 / 1–4
Average gap to the close+2.0 pts
Our line beat the close4 of 12

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played−2.291st
Full season−2.291st

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Aug 30at VirginiaCCU +6.6+12.5L 7–4817LOSS
Sat, Sep 13East CarolinaCCU +5.9+7.0L 0–3827LOSS
Sat, Sep 20at South AlabamaCCU +17.0+14.5W 38–2060LOSS
Sat, Oct 4at Old DominionCCU +16.8+18.5L 7–4714LOSS
Sat, Oct 11UL MonroeCCU −2.9+3.0W 23–869WIN
Sat, Oct 18at App StateCCU +9.8+10.5W 45–3757WIN
Thu, Oct 30MarshallCCU +9.0+7.0W 44–2758LOSS
Sat, Nov 8Georgia StateCCU −7.1−7.0W 40–2771WIN
Sat, Nov 15at Georgia SouthernCCU +3.8+3.0L 40–4543WIN
Sat, Nov 22at South CarolinaCCU +21.9+23.5L 7–512LOSS
Sat, Nov 29James MadisonCCU +23.9+24.5L 10–5920LOSS
Tue, Dec 30at Louisiana TechCCU +10.7+10.0L 14–2352LOSS

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.