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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Florida International

6–6 FBS · Conference USA · 2025
Rating
−7.4
Rank
101
Résumé
89
Our picks
7–5
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
5.1expected wins · finished 6–6
Bowl (6+)39%
9+ wins1%
11+ wins0%

6–6 against 5.1 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 6.7.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 101stFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
2–1
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
+0.9
6–6 vs 5.1
One-score games flipped
5–7
what-if record
Turnover margin
−2
expected +1.0

Luck: −0.7 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 101st · −7.3 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency−2.0106th
Offense play value−2.6105th
Defense efficiency−1.495th
Defense play value−0.980th
Drive finishing−0.698th
Field position+0.348th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security−0.080th
Third-down conversion+0.011th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added −1.3 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
+1.9
15th
Havoc rate
11.2%
51st
Rush rate over expected
+1.4%
49th · run-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceFIUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Florida Internationaloff −0.01 92nddef +0.06 76th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
7–5against the closing line
Pick was the favorite4–2
Pick was the dog3–3
Home / away side5–4 / 2–1
Average gap to the close+3.2 pts
Our line beat the close7 of 12

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played−4.8114th
Full season−4.8114th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Sep 6at Penn StateFIU +44.5+41.5L 0–3436LOSS
Sat, Sep 13Florida AtlanticFIU −7.8−2.5W 38–2873WIN
Sat, Sep 20DelawareFIU −8.4−4.0L 16–3825LOSS
Sat, Oct 4at UConnFIU +11.3+7.0L 10–5115WIN
Tue, Oct 14at Western KentuckyFIU +9.5+10.0W 25–670WIN
Tue, Oct 21Kennesaw StateFIU −2.5+3.0L 26–4529LOSS
Wed, Oct 29at Missouri StateFIU +6.1+3.0L 21–2848WIN
Sat, Nov 8at Middle TennesseeFIU +0.7+1.5W 56–3061WIN
Sat, Nov 15LibertyFIU PK+2.5W 34–2763WIN
Sat, Nov 22Jacksonville StateFIU +1.2−2.5W 27–2146LOSS
Sat, Nov 29at Sam HoustonFIU −9.8−10.5W 56–1685LOSS
Fri, Dec 26at UTSAFIU +11.5+7.0L 20–575WIN

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.