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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Delaware

6–6 FBS · Conference USA · 2025
Rating
−8.5
Rank
105
Résumé
98
Our picks
5–7
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
6.2expected wins · finished 6–6
Bowl (6+)67%
9+ wins8%
11+ wins0%

6–6 against 6.2 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 4.8.

Ranking by week151025Wk 2Wk 8Wk 15Wk 23
Ours 105thFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
4–2
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
−0.2
6–6 vs 6.2
One-score games flipped
4–8
what-if record
Turnover margin
+3
expected +3.0

Luck: +1.2 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 105th · −7.6 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency−0.781st
Offense play value+0.362nd
Defense efficiency−1.9108th
Defense play value−4.1126th
Drive finishing−0.6102nd
Field position−0.7101st
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security+0.040th
Third-down conversion−0.080th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added +0.7 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
+0.3
55th
Havoc rate
11.2%
55th
Rush rate over expected
−9.5%
128th · pass-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceDELgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Delawareoff −0.01 88thdef +0.06 82nd

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
5–7against the closing line
Pick was the favorite0–3
Pick was the dog5–4
Home / away side5–3 / 0–4
Average gap to the close+2.7 pts
Our line beat the close5 of 12

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played−6.6131st
Full season−6.6131st

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Sep 6at ColoradoDEL +21.3+23.5L 7–3119LOSS
Sat, Sep 13UConnDEL +5.8+8.5W 44–4145WIN
Sat, Sep 20at Florida InternationalDEL +8.4+4.0W 38–1675LOSS
Fri, Oct 3Western KentuckyDEL −5.8−2.5L 24–2742LOSS
Wed, Oct 15at Jacksonville StateDEL −1.1−3.0L 25–3822WIN
Wed, Oct 22Middle TennesseeDEL −12.3−8.5W 31–2868LOSS
Sat, Nov 1at LibertyDEL +2.0+3.5L 30–5921LOSS
Sat, Nov 8Louisiana TechDEL +3.3+5.5W 25–2449WIN
Sat, Nov 15at Sam HoustonDEL −9.8−11.5L 23–2642WIN
Sat, Nov 22at Wake ForestDEL +13.1+17.5L 14–528LOSS
Sat, Nov 29UTEPDEL −2.8−4.5W 61–3184LOSS
Wed, Dec 17LouisianaDEL −0.9+1.5W 20–1358WIN

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.