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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Wisconsin

4–8 FBS · Big Ten · 2025
Rating
−1.5
Rank
76
Résumé
65
Our picks
8–4
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
3.9expected wins · finished 4–8
Bowl (6+)11%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

4–8 against 3.9 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 4.3.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 76thFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
1–0
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
+0.1
4–8 vs 3.9
One-score games flipped
3–9
what-if record
Turnover margin
−13
expected −13.0

Luck: −0.3 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 110th · −8.4 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency−2.1108th
Offense play value−4.9124th
Defense efficiency−0.673rd
Defense play value+1.739th
Drive finishing−2.8136th
Field position+0.348th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security−0.0122nd
Third-down conversion+0.026th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added −2.9 pts/game to results — ran cold; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
+1.0
33rd
Havoc rate
9.7%
92nd
Rush rate over expected
+8.6%
15th · run-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceWISgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Wisconsinoff −0.20 132nddef +0.03 62nd

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
8–4against the closing line
Pick was the favorite3–3
Pick was the dog5–1
Home / away side3–2 / 5–2
Average gap to the close+3.0 pts
Our line beat the close7 of 12

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played+9.24th
Full season+9.24th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Thu, Aug 28Miami (OH)WIS −11.3−17.5W 17–070WIN
Sat, Sep 6Middle TennesseeWIS −25.8−28.5W 42–1073LOSS
Sat, Sep 13at AlabamaWIS +20.4+17.5L 14–388WIN
Sat, Sep 20MarylandWIS −5.4−10.5L 10–2732WIN
Sat, Oct 4at MichiganWIS +20.0+17.5L 10–2426LOSS
Sat, Oct 11IowaWIS +9.1+5.5L 0–3712WIN
Sat, Oct 18Ohio StateWIS +26.6+24.5L 0–343WIN
Sat, Oct 25at OregonWIS +27.4+31.5L 7–2119WIN
Sat, Nov 8WashingtonWIS +11.4+10.5W 13–1046LOSS
Sat, Nov 15at IndianaWIS +29.9+28.5L 7–3140LOSS
Sat, Nov 22IllinoisWIS +6.6+8.5W 27–1059WIN
Sat, Nov 29at MinnesotaWIS +0.6−2.5L 7–1749WIN

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.