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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Middle Tennessee

3–8 FBS · Conference USA · 2025
Rating
−12.2
Rank
122
Résumé
133
Our picks
4–7
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
4.0expected wins · finished 3–8
Bowl (6+)16%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

3–8 against 4.0 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 3.0.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 122ndFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
2–4
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
−1.0
3–8 vs 4.0
One-score games flipped
5–6
what-if record
Turnover margin
+3
expected +2.5

Luck: −0.0 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 119th · −10.2 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency−1.088th
Offense play value−1.795th
Defense efficiency−3.0120th
Defense play value−3.5118th
Drive finishing−0.278th
Field position−0.8110th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security0.062nd
Third-down conversion+0.011th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added −0.6 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
+0.4
54th
Havoc rate
12.2%
26th
Rush rate over expected
−11.8%
133rd · pass-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceMTSUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Middle Tennesseeoff +0.01 75thdef +0.09 93rd

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
4–7against the closing line
Pick was the favorite1–3
Pick was the dog3–4
Home / away side1–2 / 3–5
Average gap to the close+2.7 pts
Our line beat the close4 of 11

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played−7.0132nd
Full season−7.0132nd

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Sep 6at WisconsinMTSU +25.8+28.5L 10–4228LOSS
Sat, Sep 13at NevadaMTSU +6.5+9.5W 14–1336WIN
Sat, Sep 20MarshallMTSU +5.9+2.5L 28–4245WIN
Sat, Sep 27at Kennesaw StateMTSU +2.3+7.0L 16–2442LOSS
Wed, Oct 8Missouri StateMTSU +2.7+3.0L 20–2243WIN
Wed, Oct 22at DelawareMTSU +12.3+8.5L 28–3133LOSS
Wed, Oct 29Jacksonville StateMTSU +10.0+4.0L 21–2442LOSS
Sat, Nov 8Florida InternationalMTSU −0.7−1.5L 30–5640WIN
Sat, Nov 15at Western KentuckyMTSU +13.2+13.5L 26–4251LOSS
Sat, Nov 22Sam HoustonMTSU −1.7−6.5W 31–1781LOSS
Sat, Nov 29at New Mexico StateMTSU +3.2+3.0W 31–2458LOSS

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.