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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Old Dominion

9–3 FBS · Sun Belt · 2025
Rating
+8.3
Rank
28
Résumé
33
Our picks
5–7
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
7.3expected wins · finished 9–3
Bowl (6+)90%
9+ wins21%
11+ wins1%

9–3 against 7.3 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 8.8.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 28thFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
1–0
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
+1.7
9–3 vs 7.3
One-score games flipped
8–4
what-if record
Turnover margin
−3
expected −1.5

Luck: +0.1 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 38th · +5.9 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency+1.238th
Offense play value−0.576th
Defense efficiency+1.930th
Defense play value+3.222nd
Drive finishing−0.386th
Field position+0.345th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security−0.099th
Third-down conversion+0.026th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added −1.8 pts/game to results — ran cold; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
+0.3
57th
Havoc rate
12.3%
20th
Rush rate over expected
+4.6%
29th · run-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceODUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Old Dominionoff +0.15 17thdef −0.14 7th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
5–7against the closing line
Pick was the favorite1–3
Pick was the dog4–4
Home / away side2–5 / 3–2
Average gap to the close+3.6 pts
Our line beat the close5 of 12

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played−2.492nd
Full season−2.492nd

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Aug 30at IndianaODU +19.8+23.5L 14–2756WIN
Sat, Sep 13at Virginia TechODU +10.8+5.5W 45–2680LOSS
Sat, Sep 27LibertyODU −15.4−14.5W 21–780LOSS
Sat, Oct 4Coastal CarolinaODU −16.8−18.5W 47–786LOSS
Sat, Oct 11at MarshallODU −5.5−14.5L 24–4817WIN
Sat, Oct 18at James MadisonODU +6.8+3.0L 27–6344WIN
Sat, Oct 25App StateODU −11.0−13.5W 24–2163WIN
Sat, Nov 1at UL MonroeODU −16.0−16.5W 31–699LOSS
Thu, Nov 13TroyODU −8.2−9.5W 33–092LOSS
Sat, Nov 22at Georgia SouthernODU −7.5−10.0W 45–1097LOSS
Sat, Nov 29Georgia StateODU −21.7−28.5W 27–1070WIN
Wed, Dec 17at South FloridaODU +8.7+4.0W 24–1056LOSS

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.