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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Marshall

4–7 FBS · Sun Belt · 2025
Rating
−3.9
Rank
85
Résumé
104
Our picks
7–4
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
6.0expected wins · finished 4–7
Bowl (6+)65%
9+ wins4%
11+ wins0%

4–7 against 6.0 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 4.8.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 85thFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
1–4
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
−2.0
4–7 vs 6.0
One-score games flipped
7–4
what-if record
Turnover margin
+5
expected +7.5

Luck: −0.8 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 66th · −0.9 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency−0.371st
Offense play value−1.794th
Defense efficiency+0.748th
Defense play value−0.979th
Drive finishing+0.541st
Field position+0.725th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security+0.021st
Third-down conversion+0.13rd

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added +0.2 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
+1.9
17th
Havoc rate
11.7%
40th
Rush rate over expected
+5.9%
23rd · run-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceMRSHgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Marshalloff +0.02 71stdef +0.08 89th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
7–4against the closing line
Pick was the favorite2–4
Pick was the dog5–0
Home / away side3–1 / 4–3
Average gap to the close+4.0 pts
Our line beat the close6 of 11

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played−3.096th
Full season−3.096th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Aug 30at GeorgiaMRSH +34.6+39.5L 7–456WIN
Sat, Sep 6Missouri StateMRSH −20.9−7.5L 20–2118LOSS
Sat, Sep 20at Middle TennesseeMRSH −5.9−2.5W 42–2855WIN
Sat, Sep 27at LouisianaMRSH −2.3−2.5L 51–5484WIN
Sat, Oct 11Old DominionMRSH +5.5+14.5W 48–2484WIN
Sat, Oct 18Texas StateMRSH −3.4+3.0W 40–3738WIN
Thu, Oct 30at Coastal CarolinaMRSH −9.0−7.0L 27–4442LOSS
Sat, Nov 8James MadisonMRSH +13.6+13.5L 23–3551LOSS
Sat, Nov 15at Georgia StateMRSH −10.2−9.5W 30–1856WIN
Sat, Nov 22at App StateMRSH −7.4−4.0L 24–2653LOSS
Sat, Nov 29Georgia SouthernMRSH −10.2−10.5L 19–2427WIN

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.