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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

James Madison

11–2 FBS · Sun Belt · 2025
Rating
+14.3
Rank
11
Résumé
18
Our picks
6–7
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
9.7expected wins · finished 11–2
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins82%
11+ wins28%

11–2 against 9.7 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 9.4.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 11thAP 19thFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
2–0
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
+1.3
11–2 vs 9.7
One-score games flipped
9–4
what-if record
Turnover margin
−1
expected +2.5

Luck: +1.6 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 7th · +15.9 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency+1.145th
Offense play value+1.050th
Defense efficiency+6.52nd
Defense play value+6.14th
Drive finishing−0.066th
Field position+1.319th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security+0.021st
Third-down conversion−0.0116th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added +2.0 pts/game to results — ran hot; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
+0.1
66th
Havoc rate
11.6%
44th
Rush rate over expected
+5.2%
25th · run-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceJMUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
James Madisonoff +0.06 51stdef −0.14 6th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
6–7against the closing line
Pick was the favorite3–4
Pick was the dog3–3
Home / away side3–5 / 3–2
Average gap to the close+2.7 pts
Our line beat the close6 of 13

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played−1.784th
Full season−1.784th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Fri, Sep 5at LouisvilleJMU +14.5+15.5L 14–2847WIN
Sat, Sep 20at LibertyJMU −3.3−7.5W 31–1369LOSS
Sat, Sep 27Georgia SouthernJMU −13.7−14.5W 35–1076LOSS
Sat, Oct 4at Georgia StateJMU −19.3−19.5W 14–752WIN
Sat, Oct 11LouisianaJMU −21.7−18.5W 24–1470LOSS
Sat, Oct 18Old DominionJMU −6.8−3.0W 63–2756WIN
Tue, Oct 28at Texas StateJMU −8.4−7.0W 52–2083WIN
Sat, Nov 8at MarshallJMU −13.6−13.5W 35–2350LOSS
Sat, Nov 15App StateJMU −24.5−21.0W 58–1085WIN
Sat, Nov 22Washington StateJMU −19.6−15.5W 24–2065LOSS
Sat, Nov 29at Coastal CarolinaJMU −23.9−24.5W 59–1080LOSS
Fri, Dec 5TroyJMU −30.5−24.5W 31–1456LOSS
Sat, Dec 20at OregonJMU +14.1+20.5L 34–5111WIN

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.