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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Notre Dame

10–2 FBS · FBS Independents · 2025
Rating
+22.7
Rank
4
Résumé
12
Our picks
6–6
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
10.9expected wins · finished 10–2
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins99%
11+ wins72%

10–2 against 10.9 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 10.6.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 4thAP 10thFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
0–2
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
−0.9
10–2 vs 10.9
One-score games flipped
12–0
what-if record
Turnover margin
+18
expected +18.5

Luck: −0.6 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 8th · +14.9 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency+3.017th
Offense play value+2.231st
Defense efficiency+3.415th
Defense play value+3.421st
Drive finishing+1.214th
Field position+1.710th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security+0.040th
Third-down conversion−0.0116th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added +1.8 pts/game to results — ran hot; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
+1.7
20th
Havoc rate
10.2%
84th
Rush rate over expected
−1.3%
69th · pass-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceNDgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Notre Dameoff +0.22 8thdef −0.11 12th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
6–6against the closing line
Pick was the favorite5–5
Pick was the dog1–1
Home / away side4–3 / 2–3
Average gap to the close+6.0 pts
Our line beat the close5 of 12

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played+2.748th
Full season+2.748th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sun, Aug 31at MiamiND −15.0−2.5L 24–2743LOSS
Sat, Sep 13Texas A&MND −17.0−6.5L 40–4139LOSS
Sat, Sep 20PurdueND −41.9−24.5W 56–3064WIN
Sat, Sep 27at ArkansasND −9.4−5.5W 56–1374WIN
Sat, Oct 4Boise StateND −27.0−21.5W 28–772LOSS
Sat, Oct 11NC StateND −29.4−23.5W 36–764WIN
Sat, Oct 18USCND −15.1−10.5W 34–2478LOSS
Sat, Nov 1at Boston CollegeND −29.8−31.5W 25–1088WIN
Sat, Nov 8NavyND −28.4−30.5W 49–1062LOSS
Sat, Nov 15at PittsburghND −15.7−12.5W 37–1569WIN
Sat, Nov 22SyracuseND −40.6−36.5W 70–799WIN
Sat, Nov 29at StanfordND −33.7−32.5W 49–2095LOSS

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.