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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

South Florida

8–4 FBS · American Athletic · 2025
Rating
+12.7
Rank
18
Résumé
40
Our picks
3–9
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
6.8expected wins · finished 8–4
Bowl (6+)83%
9+ wins11%
11+ wins0%

8–4 against 6.8 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 7.8.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 18thAP NRFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
1–2
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
+1.2
8–4 vs 6.8
One-score games flipped
9–3
what-if record
Turnover margin
+5
expected +8.0

Luck: +0.2 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 27th · +9.4 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency+2.425th
Offense play value+3.226th
Defense efficiency+2.227th
Defense play value+1.545th
Drive finishing+0.349th
Field position−0.271st
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security−0.080th
Third-down conversion−0.080th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added −0.0 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
−0.4
77th
Havoc rate
11.3%
49th
Rush rate over expected
−1.8%
78th · pass-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceUSFgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
South Floridaoff +0.16 16thdef −0.05 28th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
3–9against the closing line
Pick was the favorite1–4
Pick was the dog2–5
Home / away side3–4 / 0–5
Average gap to the close+5.1 pts
Our line beat the close3 of 12

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played−0.374th
Full season−0.374th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Thu, Aug 28Boise StateUSF +10.2+8.5W 34–769LOSS
Sat, Sep 6at FloridaUSF +21.2+18.5W 18–1651LOSS
Sat, Sep 13at MiamiUSF +19.3+17.5L 12–499WIN
Fri, Oct 3CharlotteUSF −13.9−27.5W 54–2696LOSS
Fri, Oct 10at North TexasUSF +6.9+2.5W 63–3685LOSS
Sat, Oct 18Florida AtlanticUSF −15.9−20.5W 48–1372LOSS
Sat, Oct 25at MemphisUSF +1.1−3.5L 31–3446WIN
Thu, Nov 6UTSAUSF −3.7−14.0W 55–2396LOSS
Sat, Nov 15at NavyUSF −4.0−9.5L 38–4149WIN
Sat, Nov 22at UABUSF −16.3−21.5W 48–1885LOSS
Sat, Nov 29RiceUSF −25.8−28.5W 52–397LOSS
Wed, Dec 17Old DominionUSF −8.7−4.0L 10–2444LOSS

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.