LockSZN
Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

California

6–6 FBS · ACC · 2025
Rating
−4.3
Rank
87
Résumé
68
Our picks
10–2
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
4.6expected wins · finished 6–6
Bowl (6+)27%
9+ wins1%
11+ wins0%

6–6 against 4.6 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 5.6.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 87thFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
4–2
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
+1.4
6–6 vs 4.6
One-score games flipped
4–8
what-if record
Turnover margin
+2
expected −2.0

Luck: +0.4 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 69th · −1.3 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency−0.575th
Offense play value−0.883rd
Defense efficiency−0.469th
Defense play value−0.370th
Drive finishing+1.119th
Field position−0.486th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security+0.040th
Third-down conversion−0.0102nd

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added +1.2 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
−1.2
111th
Havoc rate
11.7%
42nd
Rush rate over expected
−11.2%
132nd · pass-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceCALgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Californiaoff +0.07 48thdef +0.03 66th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
10–2against the closing line
Pick was the favorite4–2
Pick was the dog6–0
Home / away side5–1 / 5–1
Average gap to the close+2.5 pts
Our line beat the close9 of 12

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played−0.877th
Full season−0.877th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Aug 30at Oregon StateCAL −0.9+3.0W 34–1570WIN
Sat, Sep 13MinnesotaCAL +2.7+3.0W 27–1452WIN
Sat, Sep 20at San Diego StateCAL −13.0−14.0L 0–3450WIN
Sat, Sep 27at Boston CollegeCAL +5.9+6.0W 28–2451WIN
Sat, Oct 4DukeCAL +4.0+3.5L 21–4543WIN
Fri, Oct 17North CarolinaCAL −2.2−7.5W 21–1861WIN
Fri, Oct 24at Virginia TechCAL +6.3+6.0L 34–4235WIN
Sat, Nov 1VirginiaCAL +6.7+6.5L 21–3150WIN
Sat, Nov 8at LouisvilleCAL +20.4+18.5W 29–2659LOSS
Sat, Nov 22at StanfordCAL −1.1−4.5L 10–3167WIN
Sat, Nov 29SMUCAL +19.8+13.5W 38–3549LOSS
Wed, Dec 24at Hawai'iCAL +8.4+1.5L 31–3547WIN

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.