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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Georgia

11–2 FBS · SEC · 2025
Rating
+16.2
Rank
8
Résumé
8
Our picks
6–7
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
10.0expected wins · finished 11–2
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins86%
11+ wins39%

11–2 against 10.0 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 8.4.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 8thAP 6thFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
4–2
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
+1.0
11–2 vs 10.0
One-score games flipped
9–4
what-if record
Turnover margin
+4
expected +0.5

Luck: +2.6 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 14th · +12.9 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency+2.623rd
Offense play value+2.233rd
Defense efficiency+2.820th
Defense play value+2.925th
Drive finishing+2.32nd
Field position+0.155th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security+0.040th
Third-down conversion−0.080th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added +1.0 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
+1.0
34th
Havoc rate
10.5%
73rd
Rush rate over expected
+1.8%
45th · run-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceUGAgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Georgiaoff +0.10 35thdef −0.03 37th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
6–7against the closing line
Pick was the favorite4–5
Pick was the dog2–2
Home / away side3–4 / 3–3
Average gap to the close+4.1 pts
Our line beat the close4 of 13

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played+4.333rd
Full season+4.333rd

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Aug 30MarshallUGA −34.6−39.5W 45–795WIN
Sat, Sep 13at TennesseeUGA −10.7−3.5W 44–4141LOSS
Sat, Sep 27AlabamaUGA −7.5−2.5L 21–2441LOSS
Sat, Oct 4KentuckyUGA −23.4−19.5W 35–1476WIN
Sat, Oct 11at AuburnUGA −10.6−4.5W 20–1050WIN
Sat, Oct 18Ole MissUGA −6.7−7.5W 43–3552LOSS
Sat, Nov 1at FloridaUGA −12.8−7.0W 24–2058LOSS
Sat, Nov 8at Mississippi StateUGA −12.7−9.5W 41–2191WIN
Sat, Nov 15TexasUGA −9.8−3.5W 35–1055WIN
Sat, Nov 22CharlotteUGA −50.3−42.5W 35–398LOSS
Fri, Nov 28at Georgia TechUGA −15.7−16.5W 16–939WIN
Sat, Dec 6at AlabamaUGA PK−1.5W 28–773LOSS
Thu, Jan 1Ole MissUGA −7.0−6.0L 34–3938LOSS

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.