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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Wake Forest

8–4 FBS · ACC · 2025
Rating
+3.4
Rank
54
Résumé
36
Our picks
4–8
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
5.0expected wins · finished 8–4
Bowl (6+)37%
9+ wins1%
11+ wins0%

8–4 against 5.0 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 6.0.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 54thFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
4–1
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
+3.0
8–4 vs 5.0
One-score games flipped
5–7
what-if record
Turnover margin
−2
expected −9.0

Luck: +2.0 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 48th · +3.9 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency−2.3111th
Offense play value−2.299th
Defense efficiency+3.811th
Defense play value+5.09th
Drive finishing−0.7107th
Field position+0.441st
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security0.062nd
Third-down conversion−0.0116th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added +0.6 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
−3.0
129th
Havoc rate
11.2%
53rd
Rush rate over expected
−1.8%
77th · pass-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceWAKEgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Wake Forestoff −0.01 91stdef −0.11 13th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
4–8against the closing line
Pick was the favorite2–4
Pick was the dog2–4
Home / away side2–4 / 2–4
Average gap to the close+3.0 pts
Our line beat the close4 of 12

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played−0.173rd
Full season−0.173rd

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Fri, Aug 29Kennesaw StateWAKE −18.7−17.5W 10–951LOSS
Thu, Sep 11NC StateWAKE +10.1+7.5L 24–3431WIN
Sat, Sep 27Georgia TechWAKE +11.9+13.5L 29–3062WIN
Sat, Oct 4at Virginia TechWAKE +7.8+4.5W 30–2361LOSS
Sat, Oct 11at Oregon StateWAKE +4.1−1.5W 39–1477LOSS
Sat, Oct 25SMUWAKE +9.3+5.5W 13–1253LOSS
Sat, Nov 1at Florida StateWAKE +4.3+12.5L 7–4217LOSS
Sat, Nov 8at VirginiaWAKE +10.5+7.0W 16–952LOSS
Sat, Nov 15North CarolinaWAKE −2.5−3.5W 28–1256LOSS
Sat, Nov 22DelawareWAKE −13.1−17.5W 52–1492LOSS
Sat, Nov 29at DukeWAKE +3.0+2.5L 32–4964WIN
Fri, Jan 2at Mississippi StateWAKE +2.2+3.0W 43–2956WIN

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.