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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Western Kentucky

8–4 FBS · Conference USA · 2025
Rating
−1.3
Rank
74
Résumé
64
Our picks
4–8
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
5.7expected wins · finished 8–4
Bowl (6+)54%
9+ wins4%
11+ wins0%

8–4 against 5.7 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 6.2.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 74thFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
3–2
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
+2.3
8–4 vs 5.7
One-score games flipped
7–5
what-if record
Turnover margin
−5
expected −5.0

Luck: +1.8 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 70th · −1.8 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency−0.473rd
Offense play value−2.198th
Defense efficiency+1.534th
Defense play value+0.357th
Drive finishing−0.169th
Field position−1.1120th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security0.062nd
Third-down conversion−0.0116th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added +0.9 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
−0.7
90th
Havoc rate
11.0%
60th
Rush rate over expected
−7.9%
123rd · pass-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateSam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceWKUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Western Kentuckyoff −0.02 95thdef −0.02 43rd

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
4–8against the closing line
Pick was the favorite0–2
Pick was the dog4–6
Home / away side1–3 / 3–5
Average gap to the close+3.0 pts
Our line beat the close4 of 12

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played−6.2128th
Full season−6.2128th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Aug 23Sam HoustonWKU PK−9.5W 41–2471LOSS
Sat, Sep 6at ToledoWKU +6.8+7.5L 21–455LOSS
Sat, Sep 20NevadaWKU −7.5−8.5W 31–1666LOSS
Sat, Sep 27at Missouri StateWKU +1.1−3.5W 27–2267LOSS
Fri, Oct 3at DelawareWKU +5.8+2.5W 27–2458LOSS
Tue, Oct 14Florida InternationalWKU −9.5−10.0L 6–2531WIN
Tue, Oct 21at Louisiana TechWKU +5.5+5.5W 28–2743LOSS
Sat, Nov 1New Mexico StateWKU −3.4−7.5W 35–1674LOSS
Sat, Nov 15Middle TennesseeWKU −13.2−13.5W 42–2649LOSS
Sat, Nov 22at LSUWKU +24.1+24.5L 10–1342WIN
Sat, Nov 29at Jacksonville StateWKU +4.7−1.5L 34–3737WIN
Tue, Dec 23at Southern MissWKU −2.9+3.0W 27–1651WIN

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.