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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Louisiana Tech

7–5 FBS · Sun Belt · 2025
Rating
−0.1
Rank
70
Résumé
81
Our picks
7–5
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
7.6expected wins · finished 7–5
Bowl (6+)92%
9+ wins28%
11+ wins2%

7–5 against 7.6 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 7.3.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 70thFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
1–2
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
−0.6
7–5 vs 7.6
One-score games flipped
8–4
what-if record
Turnover margin
+8
expected +7.5

Luck: −0.3 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 97th · −6.6 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency−2.2110th
Offense play value−4.2119th
Defense efficiency+0.847th
Defense play value−0.067th
Drive finishing−0.171st
Field position−0.9113th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security0.062nd
Third-down conversion−0.0116th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added +0.9 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
+4.7
1st
Havoc rate
13.9%
8th
Rush rate over expected
+8.2%
17th · run-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceLTgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Louisiana Techoff −0.05 105thdef −0.08 20th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
7–5against the closing line
Pick was the favorite3–3
Pick was the dog4–2
Home / away side4–2 / 3–3
Average gap to the close+4.3 pts
Our line beat the close7 of 12

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played−6.2128th
Full season−6.2128th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Sep 6at LSULT +32.5+36.5L 7–2319WIN
Sat, Sep 13New Mexico StateLT −11.8−10.0W 49–1472WIN
Sat, Sep 20Southern MissLT −15.5−3.0W 30–2088WIN
Sat, Sep 27at UTEPLT −8.0−3.5W 30–1152WIN
Thu, Oct 9at Kennesaw StateLT −12.9−4.5L 7–3524LOSS
Tue, Oct 21Western KentuckyLT −5.5−5.5L 27–2857LOSS
Fri, Oct 31Sam HoustonLT −15.1−16.5W 55–1497LOSS
Sat, Nov 8at DelawareLT −3.3−5.5L 24–2552WIN
Sat, Nov 15at Washington StateLT +4.5+10.0L 3–2839LOSS
Sat, Nov 22LibertyLT −7.7+1.5W 34–2844WIN
Sat, Nov 29at Missouri StateLT +1.1+2.5W 42–3049WIN
Tue, Dec 30Coastal CarolinaLT −10.7−10.0W 23–1449LOSS

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.