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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Sam Houston

2–10 FBS · Conference USA · 2025
Rating
−19.6
Rank
134
Résumé
134
Our picks
2–10
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
4.5expected wins · finished 2–10
Bowl (6+)26%
9+ wins1%
11+ wins0%

2–10 against 4.5 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 2.4.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 134thFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
2–1
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
−2.5
2–10 vs 4.5
One-score games flipped
1–11
what-if record
Turnover margin
0
expected −2.0

Luck: −0.4 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 135th · −24.1 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency−4.0127th
Offense play value−6.4133rd
Defense efficiency−5.7134th
Defense play value−4.9131st
Drive finishing−2.1133rd
Field position−1.1121st
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security−0.080th
Third-down conversion+0.11st

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added −2.3 pts/game to results — ran cold; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
−0.6
88th
Havoc rate
9.3%
103rd
Rush rate over expected
−1.3%
68th · pass-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckyHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceSHSUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Sam Houstonoff −0.17 128thdef +0.12 112th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
2–10against the closing line
Pick was the favorite0–2
Pick was the dog2–8
Home / away side1–3 / 1–7
Average gap to the close+4.0 pts
Our line beat the close2 of 12

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played−5.0117th
Full season−5.0117th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Aug 23at Western KentuckySHSU PK+9.5L 24–4130LOSS
Fri, Aug 29UNLVSHSU +7.9+13.5L 21–3832LOSS
Sat, Sep 6at Hawai'iSHSU −3.6+7.5L 20–3733LOSS
Sat, Sep 20at TexasSHSU +38.7+39.5L 0–552LOSS
Thu, Oct 2at New Mexico StateSHSU −3.0−2.5L 10–3742LOSS
Thu, Oct 9Jacksonville StateSHSU +7.9+7.0L 27–2945LOSS
Wed, Oct 15UTEPSHSU +0.6+3.5L 17–3534LOSS
Fri, Oct 31at Louisiana TechSHSU +15.1+16.5L 14–554LOSS
Sat, Nov 8at Oregon StateSHSU +12.2+21.0W 21–1743WIN
Sat, Nov 15DelawareSHSU +9.8+11.5W 26–2358WIN
Sat, Nov 22at Middle TennesseeSHSU +1.7+6.5L 17–3120LOSS
Sat, Nov 29Florida InternationalSHSU +9.8+10.5L 16–5616LOSS

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.