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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Washington State

6–6 FBS · Pac-12 · 2025
Rating
+6.3
Rank
36
Résumé
53
Our picks
5–7
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
5.1expected wins · finished 6–6
Bowl (6+)40%
9+ wins1%
11+ wins0%

6–6 against 5.1 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 6.6.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 36thFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
0–4
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
+0.9
6–6 vs 5.1
One-score games flipped
10–2
what-if record
Turnover margin
−8
expected −9.0

Luck: −0.6 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 63rd · −0.0 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency+0.553rd
Offense play value−2.4103rd
Defense efficiency+0.058th
Defense play value+1.544th
Drive finishing+0.638th
Field position−0.170th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security−0.1131st
Third-down conversion+0.039th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added −3.8 pts/game to results — ran cold; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
−0.6
89th
Havoc rate
10.5%
76th
Rush rate over expected
−2.4%
87th · pass-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUSan Diego StateAir ForceWSUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Washington Stateoff −0.01 85thdef −0.09 16th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
5–7against the closing line
Pick was the favorite2–4
Pick was the dog3–3
Home / away side2–3 / 3–4
Average gap to the close+4.6 pts
Our line beat the close5 of 12

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played+3.342nd
Full season+3.342nd

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Sep 6San Diego StateWSU −14.7−2.5W 36–1365WIN
Sat, Sep 13at North TexasWSU −4.1+6.5L 10–5913LOSS
Sat, Sep 20WashingtonWSU +12.1+21.0L 24–5939LOSS
Sat, Sep 27at Colorado StateWSU +6.5+4.5W 20–386LOSS
Sat, Oct 11at Ole MissWSU +29.4+33.5L 21–2441WIN
Sat, Oct 18at VirginiaWSU +13.5+16.5L 20–2255WIN
Sat, Oct 25ToledoWSU +2.1+1.5W 28–770LOSS
Sat, Nov 1at Oregon StateWSU −3.8−3.5L 7–1046LOSS
Sat, Nov 15Louisiana TechWSU −4.5−10.0W 28–361LOSS
Sat, Nov 22at James MadisonWSU +19.6+15.5L 20–2436LOSS
Sat, Nov 29Oregon StateWSU −15.1−14.0W 32–887WIN
Mon, Dec 22at Utah StateWSU −1.1+1.5W 34–2177WIN

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.