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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Miami

12–3 FBS · ACC · 2025
Rating
+20.6
Rank
6
Résumé
3
Our picks
5–10
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
8.9expected wins · finished 12–3
Bowl (6+)98%
9+ wins62%
11+ wins16%

12–3 against 8.9 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 11.0.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 6thAP 2ndFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
4–3
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
+3.1
12–3 vs 8.9
One-score games flipped
11–4
what-if record
Turnover margin
+4
expected +7.0

Luck: +1.0 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 4th · +19.1 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency+3.514th
Offense play value+2.928th
Defense efficiency+4.86th
Defense play value+5.86th
Drive finishing+1.215th
Field position+1.022nd
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security+0.040th
Third-down conversion−0.0102nd

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added +1.2 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
−0.3
72nd
Havoc rate
14.9%
4th
Rush rate over expected
−3.2%
95th · pass-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceMIAgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Miamioff +0.11 31stdef −0.13 9th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
5–10against the closing line
Pick was the favorite2–5
Pick was the dog3–5
Home / away side2–5 / 3–5
Average gap to the close+3.6 pts
Our line beat the close3 of 15

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played+8.65th
Full season+8.65th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sun, Aug 31Notre DameMIA +15.0+2.5W 27–2457LOSS
Sat, Sep 13South FloridaMIA −19.3−17.5W 49–1292WIN
Sat, Sep 20FloridaMIA −6.1−8.5W 26–760LOSS
Sat, Oct 4at Florida StateMIA −9.4−3.5W 28–2287WIN
Fri, Oct 17LouisvilleMIA −7.2−10.5L 21–2456WIN
Sat, Oct 25StanfordMIA −26.1−28.5W 42–775LOSS
Sat, Nov 1at SMUMIA −5.2−8.5L 20–2647WIN
Sat, Nov 8SyracuseMIA −26.7−28.5W 38–1078WIN
Sat, Nov 15NC StateMIA −13.2−16.5W 41–763LOSS
Sat, Nov 22at Virginia TechMIA −18.5−17.5W 34–1771LOSS
Sat, Nov 29at PittsburghMIA −5.3−6.5W 38–762LOSS
Sat, Dec 20at Texas A&MMIA +5.7+3.0W 10–349LOSS
Wed, Dec 31at Ohio StateMIA +11.9+7.5W 24–1453LOSS
Thu, Jan 8at Ole MissMIA −1.3−3.0W 31–2757LOSS
Mon, Jan 19at IndianaMIA +13.3+7.5L 21–2771LOSS

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.