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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

UTSA

6–6 FBS · American Athletic · 2025
Rating
+3.6
Rank
52
Résumé
67
Our picks
6–6
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
7.8expected wins · finished 6–6
Bowl (6+)93%
9+ wins33%
11+ wins3%

6–6 against 7.8 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 7.2.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 52ndFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
1–3
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
−1.8
6–6 vs 7.8
One-score games flipped
8–4
what-if record
Turnover margin
−1
expected +3.5

Luck: −1.2 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 40th · +5.3 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency+0.652nd
Offense play value+1.739th
Defense efficiency+1.532nd
Defense play value−0.168th
Drive finishing+0.445th
Field position+1.120th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security+0.04th
Third-down conversion+0.039th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added +2.3 pts/game to results — ran hot; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
−1.2
110th
Havoc rate
8.6%
114th
Rush rate over expected
−3.9%
101st · pass-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceUTSAgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
UTSAoff +0.14 20thdef +0.02 61st

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
6–6against the closing line
Pick was the favorite3–4
Pick was the dog3–2
Home / away side4–2 / 2–4
Average gap to the close+4.9 pts
Our line beat the close6 of 12

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played−0.675th
Full season−0.675th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Aug 30at Texas A&MUTSA +17.0+21.5L 24–4236WIN
Sat, Sep 6Texas StateUTSA −6.6−4.5L 36–4348LOSS
Sat, Sep 20at Colorado StateUTSA −7.9−4.5W 17–1650LOSS
Sat, Oct 4at TempleUTSA −11.7−6.5L 21–2746LOSS
Sat, Oct 11RiceUTSA −14.4−8.5W 61–1385WIN
Sat, Oct 18at North TexasUTSA −4.0+4.0L 17–5542LOSS
Thu, Oct 30TulaneUTSA PK+6.0W 48–2690WIN
Thu, Nov 6at South FloridaUTSA +3.7+14.0L 23–554LOSS
Sat, Nov 15at CharlotteUTSA −19.2−16.5W 28–763WIN
Sat, Nov 22East CarolinaUTSA −0.7+1.5W 58–2494WIN
Sat, Nov 29ArmyUTSA −12.3−8.5L 24–2753LOSS
Fri, Dec 26Florida InternationalUTSA −11.5−7.0W 57–2095WIN

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.