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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Jacksonville State

8–5 FBS · Conference USA · 2025
Rating
−4.9
Rank
88
Résumé
78
Our picks
7–6
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
7.9expected wins · finished 8–5
Bowl (6+)92%
9+ wins38%
11+ wins6%

8–5 against 7.9 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 6.7.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 88thFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
5–4
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
+0.1
8–5 vs 7.9
One-score games flipped
7–6
what-if record
Turnover margin
+8
expected +10.0

Luck: +1.3 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 76th · −2.7 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency−0.369th
Offense play value−0.372nd
Defense efficiency−1.497th
Defense play value−0.473rd
Drive finishing+0.253rd
Field position−0.593rd
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security+0.011th
Third-down conversion+0.026th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added +1.2 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
−1.7
118th
Havoc rate
12.0%
33rd
Rush rate over expected
+13.7%
6th · run-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceJXSTgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Jacksonville Stateoff +0.06 53rddef −0.04 36th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
7–6against the closing line
Pick was the favorite2–2
Pick was the dog5–4
Home / away side5–1 / 2–5
Average gap to the close+6.3 pts
Our line beat the close6 of 13

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played−7.0132nd
Full season−7.0132nd

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Thu, Aug 28at UCFJXST +8.5+16.5L 10–1748WIN
Sat, Sep 6LibertyJXST −4.6+6.5W 34–2465WIN
Sat, Sep 13at Georgia SouthernJXST −1.9+3.0L 34–4148LOSS
Sat, Sep 27at Southern MissJXST −11.4+4.5L 25–4225LOSS
Thu, Oct 9at Sam HoustonJXST −7.9−7.0W 29–2756LOSS
Wed, Oct 15DelawareJXST +1.1+3.0W 38–2579WIN
Wed, Oct 29at Middle TennesseeJXST −10.0−4.0W 24–2158LOSS
Sat, Nov 8at UTEPJXST −5.2−1.5W 30–2759WIN
Sat, Nov 15Kennesaw StateJXST −6.0+3.5W 35–2661WIN
Sat, Nov 22at Florida InternationalJXST −1.2+2.5L 21–2755LOSS
Sat, Nov 29Western KentuckyJXST −4.7+1.5W 37–3463WIN
Fri, Dec 5Kennesaw StateJXST −6.3+3.0L 15–1951LOSS
Tue, Dec 16TroyJXST −4.0−3.5W 17–1363WIN

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.