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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

NC State

7–5 FBS · ACC · 2025
Rating
+4.5
Rank
47
Résumé
28
Our picks
9–3
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
6.7expected wins · finished 7–5
Bowl (6+)78%
9+ wins11%
11+ wins0%

7–5 against 6.7 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 6.1.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 47thFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
2–1
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
+0.3
7–5 vs 6.7
One-score games flipped
6–6
what-if record
Turnover margin
+4
expected −2.5

Luck: +0.9 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 44th · +4.7 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency+0.554th
Offense play value+3.524th
Defense efficiency+1.436th
Defense play value−2.196th
Drive finishing+1.76th
Field position−0.379th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security+0.040th
Third-down conversion−0.080th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added +0.7 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
−3.0
131st
Havoc rate
8.4%
117th
Rush rate over expected
−2.7%
91st · pass-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceNCSUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
NC Stateoff +0.17 13thdef +0.12 113th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
9–3against the closing line
Pick was the favorite6–1
Pick was the dog3–2
Home / away side7–1 / 2–2
Average gap to the close+3.9 pts
Our line beat the close8 of 12

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played+5.919th
Full season+5.919th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Thu, Aug 28East CarolinaNCSU −13.8−12.5W 24–1755LOSS
Sat, Sep 6VirginiaNCSU −9.7−2.5W 35–3158WIN
Thu, Sep 11at Wake ForestNCSU −10.1−7.5W 34–2470WIN
Sat, Sep 20at DukeNCSU −6.7+3.0L 33–4542LOSS
Sat, Sep 27Virginia TechNCSU −7.1−10.0L 21–2349WIN
Sat, Oct 11at Notre DameNCSU +29.4+23.5L 7–3636WIN
Sat, Oct 25at PittsburghNCSU +5.1+4.5L 34–5351WIN
Sat, Nov 1Georgia TechNCSU +2.1+4.5W 48–3656WIN
Sat, Nov 15at MiamiNCSU +13.2+16.5L 7–4138LOSS
Fri, Nov 21Florida StateNCSU +0.9+7.0W 21–1145WIN
Sat, Nov 29North CarolinaNCSU −9.9−7.0W 42–1975WIN
Fri, Dec 19MemphisNCSU −5.7−3.5W 31–784WIN

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.