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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Kent State

2–4 FBS · Mid-American · this season
Rating
−16.4
Rank
132
Résumé
115
Projected wins
4.2▲ 0.9 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5at South CarolinaSCKENT +26.9KENT +36.5L 0–5713KENT · L
Sat, Sep 129/12WoffordWoffordKENT −20.5KENT −10.0W 36–1579
Sat, Sep 199/19at Ohio StateOSUKENT +55.9KENT +52.0L 3–599OSU · W
Sat, Sep 269/26Ball StateBALLKENT −4.7KENT −3.5W 26–1359KENT · W
Sat, Oct 310/3OhioOHIOKENT +10.9KENT +3.0L 10–1353OHIO · Push
Sat, Oct 1010/10at Western MichiganWMUKENT +18.6KENT +13.5L 7–3838WMU · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17at South FloridaUSFKENT +21.8KENT +20.5USF −20.5Pass
Sat, Oct 2410/24AkronAKRKENT −3.5—wk 8
Fri, Oct 3010/30at Sacramento StateSACKENT −0.8—wk 9
Tue, Nov 1011/10at Bowling GreenBGSUKENT +5.6—wk 11
Tue, Nov 1711/17Miami (OH)M-OHKENT +7.9—wk 12
Tue, Nov 2411/24at Eastern MichiganEMUKENT +8.7—wk 13

Model on KENT games: 3–1–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 3–0 · as the dog 0–1 · home 3–0, away 0–1 · avg gap to the market +4.7 · closer than the market 3 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
4.22–4 banked, 6 to play · preseason 3.3
Bowl (6+)3%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 2.2 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game<1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.06124th
Success rate34.7%131st
Pass EPA−0.05114th
Rush EPA−0.07117th
Explosive rate8.3%136th
Quality-drive rate55.8%45th
Points per quality drive2.3136th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0146th
Success allowed44.6%108th
Pass EPA allowed−0.0059th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0253rd
Explosive allowed11.8%77th
Havoc rate8.7%80th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−5.2135th
Turnover margin−7129th · exp. −1.5
Field position margin+0.3 yd72nd
Hidden points / game−2.9gave up
Luck, wins−0.12.1 earned
One-score record0–1flipped 3–3
Rush rate over expected+5.4%21st
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−16.4132nd
Schedule played+2.351st
Schedule remaining−11.3135th
Full schedule−5.1101st
Pregame expected wins1.9of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 132nd · −16.4Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUKENTgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Kent Stateoff −0.06 124thdef −0.01 allowed · 46th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.