Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Notre Dame

6–0 FBS · FBS Independents · this season
Rating
+25.4
Rank
2
Résumé
2
Projected wins
11.2▲ 0.8 vs preseason
CFP odds
97%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sun, Sep 69/6WisconsinWISND −30.8ND −20.5W 41–1366ND · W
Sat, Sep 129/12RiceRICEND −43.7ND −44.5W 52–090RICE · L
Sat, Sep 199/19Michigan StateMSUND −30.4ND −29.5W 27–1070ND · L
Sat, Sep 269/26at PurduePURND −29.1ND −27.5W 49–1096ND · W
Sat, Oct 310/3at North CarolinaUNCND −19.5ND −21.0W 37–2660UNC · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10StanfordSTANND −42.1ND −37.5W 58–796ND · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17at BYUBYUND −7.0ND −10.0BYU +10.0Pass
Sat, Oct 3110/31at NavyNAVYND −29.0—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7MiamiMIAND −7.6ND −6.5wk 10
Sat, Nov 2111/21SMUSMUND −25.6ND −17.5wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at SyracuseSYRND −26.6—wk 13

Model on ND games: 4–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 3–1 · as the dog 1–1 · home 3–1, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +2.9 · closer than the market 4 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
11.26–0 banked, 6 to play · preseason 10.4
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins100%
11+ wins81%

The 6 games left add 5.2 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Make the CFP97%
First-round bye53%
Win it all19%
  • A CFP bid: >99% with a win vs BYU, 93% with a loss.

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.2511th
Success rate53.9%3rd
Pass EPA+0.3712th
Rush EPA+0.1635th
Explosive rate11.6%99th
Quality-drive rate68.0%4th
Points per quality drive5.45th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.213rd
Success allowed30.3%1st
Pass EPA allowed−0.324th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0924th
Explosive allowed6.0%1st
Havoc rate11.5%28th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−0.698th
Turnover margin+102nd · exp. +10.0
Field position margin+9.9 yd5th
Hidden points / game+9.5banked
Luck, wins+0.35.7 earned
One-score record0–0
Rush rate over expected−1.8%69th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+25.42nd
Schedule played−1.085th
Schedule remaining+4.056th
Full schedule+1.565th
Pregame expected wins3.8of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 2nd · +25.4AP 2ndWeek 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUNDgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Notre Dameoff +0.25 11thdef −0.21 allowed · 3rd

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.