Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Notre Dame
6–0 FBS · FBS Independents · this season
Rating
+25.4
Rank
2
Résumé
2
Projected wins
11.2▲ 0.8 vs preseason
CFP odds
97%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on ND games: 4–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 3–1 · as the dog 1–1 · home 3–1, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +2.9 · closer than the market 4 of 6
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
11.26–0 banked, 6 to play · preseason 10.4
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins100%
11+ wins81%
The 6 games left add 5.2 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Make the CFP97%
First-round bye53%
Win it all19%
- A CFP bid: >99% with a win vs BYU, 93% with a loss.
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
6 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.2511th
Success rate53.9%3rd
Pass EPA+0.3712th
Rush EPA+0.1635th
Explosive rate11.6%99th
Quality-drive rate68.0%4th
Points per quality drive5.45th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.213rd
Success allowed30.3%1st
Pass EPA allowed−0.324th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0924th
Explosive allowed6.0%1st
Havoc rate11.5%28th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−0.698th
Turnover margin+102nd · exp. +10.0
Field position margin+9.9 yd5th
Hidden points / game+9.5banked
Luck, wins+0.35.7 earned
One-score record0–0
Rush rate over expected−1.8%69th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+25.42nd
Schedule played−1.085th
Schedule remaining+4.056th
Full schedule+1.565th
Pregame expected wins3.8of 6
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 2nd · +25.4AP 2ndWeek 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Notre Dameoff +0.25 11thdef −0.21 allowed · 3rd
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Notre Dameoff +0.25 11thdef −0.21 allowed · 3rd
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.



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