Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Indiana

6–0 FBS · Big Ten · this season
Rating
+18.7
Rank
7
Résumé
6
Projected wins
10.3▲ 0.8 vs preseason
CFP odds
74%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5North TexasUNTIU −25.4IU −40.5W 52–1659UNT · W
Sat, Sep 129/12HowardHowardIU −50.8IU −58.0W 55–098
Sat, Sep 199/19Western KentuckyWKUIU −37.4IU −44.5W 38–082WKU · W
Fri, Sep 259/25NorthwesternNUIU −21.8IU −23.5W 29–2346NU · W
Sat, Oct 310/3at RutgersRUTGIU −22.9IU −24.0W 47–1593RUTG · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10at NebraskaNEBIU −4.3IU −7.5W 20–1758NEB · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17Ohio StateOSUIU +6.9IU +3.5OSU −3.5Pass
Sat, Oct 2410/24at MichiganMICHIU −6.4IU −6.0wk 8
Sat, Nov 1411/14USCUSCIU −8.6—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at WashingtonWASHIU −14.8—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28PurduePURIU −22.7—wk 13

Model on IU games: 4–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–0 · as the dog 4–1 · home 1–1, away 3–0 · avg gap to the market +5.9 · closer than the market 2 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
10.36–0 banked, 6 to play · preseason 9.5
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins80%
11+ wins13%

The 6 games left add 4.3 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game52%
Win conference26%
Make the CFP74%
First-round bye25%
Win it all5%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.304th
Success rate48.0%33rd
Pass EPA+0.462nd
Rush EPA+0.1536th
Explosive rate18.1%3rd
Quality-drive rate68.0%4th
Points per quality drive4.357th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0434th
Success allowed35.9%25th
Pass EPA allowed−0.0350th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0633rd
Explosive allowed9.7%29th
Havoc rate10.7%39th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.152nd
Turnover margin+619th · exp. +7.5
Field position margin+7.4 yd14th
Hidden points / game+6.3banked
Luck, wins+0.55.5 earned
One-score record2–0flipped 4–2
Rush rate over expected+1.8%39th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+18.77th
Schedule played+0.466th
Schedule remaining+7.132nd
Full schedule+4.148th
Pregame expected wins5.5of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 7th · +18.7AP 5thWeek 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUIUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Indianaoff +0.30 4thdef −0.04 allowed · 34th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.