Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Indiana
6–0 FBS · Big Ten · this season
Rating
+18.7
Rank
7
Résumé
6
Projected wins
10.3▲ 0.8 vs preseason
CFP odds
74%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on IU games: 4–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–0 · as the dog 4–1 · home 1–1, away 3–0 · avg gap to the market +5.9 · closer than the market 2 of 5
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
10.36–0 banked, 6 to play · preseason 9.5
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins80%
11+ wins13%
The 6 games left add 4.3 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game52%
Win conference26%
Make the CFP74%
First-round bye25%
Win it all5%
- A CFP bid: 93% with a win vs Ohio State, 64% with a loss.
- Scoreboard watch: root for Arizona State over Texas Tech — swings a CFP bid between 73% and 77%.
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
6 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.304th
Success rate48.0%33rd
Pass EPA+0.462nd
Rush EPA+0.1536th
Explosive rate18.1%3rd
Quality-drive rate68.0%4th
Points per quality drive4.357th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0434th
Success allowed35.9%25th
Pass EPA allowed−0.0350th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0633rd
Explosive allowed9.7%29th
Havoc rate10.7%39th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.152nd
Turnover margin+619th · exp. +7.5
Field position margin+7.4 yd14th
Hidden points / game+6.3banked
Luck, wins+0.55.5 earned
One-score record2–0flipped 4–2
Rush rate over expected+1.8%39th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+18.77th
Schedule played+0.466th
Schedule remaining+7.132nd
Full schedule+4.148th
Pregame expected wins5.5of 6
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 7th · +18.7AP 5thWeek 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Indianaoff +0.30 4thdef −0.04 allowed · 34th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Indianaoff +0.30 4thdef −0.04 allowed · 34th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.



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