Weeks 0, 1 and 2 go under
College totals in weeks 0, 1 and 2 are hung off last year's scoring, and the games do not oblige.
Oct 12, 6:06 PM EDTa week's slate freezes when DraftKings has posted most of it; graded after the week's last final
52–48
earlyWeek 2
under · weeks 0, 1 and 2 of the season, FBS vs FBS, at the opening total
MIZat
KUFri, Sep 11Under 50.5first seen—59Lost · 59
RUTGat
BCFri, Sep 11Under 55.0first seen—49Won · 49
ARKat
UTAHSat, Sep 12Under 56.5first seen—53Won · 53
USMat
AUBSat, Sep 12Under 52.5first seen—51Won · 51
WKUat
UGASat, Sep 12Under 52.5first seen—90Lost · 90
ALAat
UKSat, Sep 12Under 48.5first seen—62Lost · 62
CLTat
MISSSat, Sep 12Under 61.5first seen—50Won · 50
MSSTat
MINNSat, Sep 12Under 55.5first seen—51Won · 51
OUat
MICHSat, Sep 12Under 44.0first seen—27Won · 27
TENNat
GTSat, Sep 12Under 55.0first seen—69Lost · 69
OSUat
TEXSat, Sep 12Under 47.5first seen—47Won · 47
ASUat
TA&MSat, Sep 12Under 52.0first seen—68Lost · 68
DELat
VANSat, Sep 12Under 54.0first seen—61Lost · 61
WSUat
KSUSat, Sep 12Under 52.0first seen—41Won · 41
OREat
OKSTSat, Sep 12Under 58.0first seen—70Lost · 70
TTUat
ORSTSat, Sep 12Under 51.0first seen—59Lost · 59
ISUat
IOWASat, Sep 12Under 41.5first seen—29Won · 29
UCFat
PITTSat, Sep 12Under 57.0first seen—19Won · 19
ARIZat
BYUSat, Sep 12Under 51.0first seen—45Won · 45
CALat
SYRSat, Sep 12Under 54.5first seen—39Won · 39
DUKEat
ILLSat, Sep 12Under 54.0first seen—58Lost · 58
GASOat
CLEMSat, Sep 12Under 56.5first seen—29Won · 29
ODUat
VTSat, Sep 12Under 51.0first seen—65Lost · 65
WAKEat
PURSat, Sep 12Under 50.0first seen—74Lost · 74
EMUat
MSUSat, Sep 12Under 51.0first seen—42Won · 42
BGSUat
NEBSat, Sep 12Under 52.0first seen—63Lost · 63
PSUat
TEMSat, Sep 12Under 50.5first seen—36Won · 36
SDSUat
UCLASat, Sep 12Under 51.0first seen—38Won · 38
MDat
CONNSat, Sep 12Under 53.5first seen—52Won · 52
ULat
USCSat, Sep 12Under 58.5first seen—79Lost · 79
USUat
WASHSat, Sep 12Under 56.5first seen—30Won · 30
RICEat
NDSat, Sep 12Under 52.5first seen—52Won · 52
MEMat
BOISSat, Sep 12Under 55.0first seen—58Lost · 58
SACat
FRESSat, Sep 12Under 48.5first seen—52Lost · 52
UTSAat
TXSTSat, Sep 12Under 64.5first seen—57Won · 57
USFat
ARMYSat, Sep 12Under 50.5first seen—52Lost · 52
NAVYat
FAUSat, Sep 12Under 57.5first seen—68Lost · 68
UNLVat
UNTSat, Sep 12Under 58.0first seen—50Won · 50
TLSAat
SHSUSat, Sep 12Under 52.0first seen—40Won · 40
ULMat
UABSat, Sep 12Under 56.0first seen—46Won · 46
NDSUat
AFSat, Sep 12Under 48.5first seen—70Lost · 70
APPat
ECUSat, Sep 12Under 56.5first seen—51Won · 51
USAat
TULNSat, Sep 12Under 51.0first seen—52Lost · 52
NMSUat
HAWSat, Sep 12Under 51.5first seen—48Won · 48
BUFat
FIUSat, Sep 12Under 49.5first seen—53Lost · 53
JXSTat
OHIOSat, Sep 12Under 51.5first seen—56Lost · 56
LTat
LSUSat, Sep 12Under 55.5first seen—59Lost · 59
GASTat
KENNSat, Sep 12Under 50.5first seen—48Won · 48
MTSUat
MRSHSat, Sep 12Under 57.5first seen—54Won · 54By season
every season the rule has runWhy this is here
not a model pickAgainst the opening total, 58.3% over 480 games from 2021 to 2025, under in all five seasons and profitable in all five. The market is anchored: weeks 0, 1 and 2 carry the season's highest totals and produce its lowest scoring, and each year the number lands within about 0.7 of last season's average. It is a mean shift and not a tail — the rule is strongest in one-score games, while blowouts go over — and it dies cleanly at week 3.
A note about the market, not a forecast of the game: it is graded on its own ledger, never the model’s, at the number each card was posted at (unposted weeks and past seasons ride at the number first seen). How we grade.
The 46% retire line: the market only has to move its opening number a point and a half to erase it, which is what happened to every early -season edge that has been published. A rule still winning at its long-run rate lands under 50% about one season in ten but under 46% about one in sixty, so one season below it retires the rule and this page stops publishing it.